Neural network-based model for supporting the expert driven project estimation process in mold manufacturing

摘要

One of the crucial activities for running a successful mold manufacturing business is project estimation. The estimation process is an early project activity which is usually handled by highly skilled, in-house experts. One of the most important parameters affecting the estimation process is the volume of manufacturing hours (VMH) to produce the mold. This article suggests how to address the problem of estimating the volume of manufacturing hours by using the support of an artificial neural network (ANN) model, and its inclusion into the expert driven project estimation process. Based on the histogram of ANN estimations the percentage of unwanted underestimations of the VMH can be estimated as well and decreased by an introduced safety factor. The developed model-based estimation enables an expert to improve project estimation by using easily obtainable input data.